Millar Western’s Trev Wakelin presents at Canada-US Trade Relations Forum on the Softwood Lumber Agreement.
pdf/SLA-presentation-TWakelin-070411.pdf At a Canada-US Trade Relations Forum on the Softwood Lumber Agreement, held at the University of Alberta on April 11, industry leaders and former government trade officials examined the political and economic impacts of the accord, which has now been in effect for six months. Sponsored by CN and Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, the forum focused on the impact of the agreement on the Western Canadian lumber industry.
During the forum’s first session, Doug Waddell, former Canadian negotiator for the softwood lumber deal, and his American counterpart, former U.S. deputy trade secretary Grant Aldonas, gave their views on how the deal was done, what it meant for the industries in their respective countries, and the future of the agreement.
A second session featured a panel of industry leaders: Hank Ketcham, President and CEO of West Fraser Timber; Ken Higginbotham, Vice-President of Forestry and Environment for Canfor Corp.; Paul Perkins, Vice-President of Policy and Planning for Weyerhaeuser Company; and Millar Western’s Trevor Wakelin, Director of Fibre Resources. The private-sector speakers offered their insights into the deal, their companies’ experiences with it over the past six months, and the changes needed to protect the viability of the Western Canadian lumber industry.
Doug Waddell noted that the deal failed to meet one of the Canadian industry’s primary objectives, saying “This agreement does not provide for long-term resolution of this dispute.” Grant Aldonas concurred, noting, “The agreement will not be durable.”
Trev Wakelin presented a dissection of the flawed deal, and discussed the considerable challenges facing the lumber industry, particularly in Alberta, where the spread of the Mountain Pine Beetle will significantly worsen the impact of the deal’s quotas and taxes.
Wakelin noted that the argument at the heart of the trade war – public ownership of forest resources in Canada versus private ownership in the U.S. – was not resolved. “The underlying core of this dispute over the last several decades has been subsidy allegations, none of which has ever been proven in court,” he said. “It’s a clear case of the U.S. dictating forestry policy in Canada.” Wakelin predicted further negative economic impacts for lumber producers and forestry-dependent communities, and anticipated the deal’s collapse within three years, with the launch of the next Canada-U.S. lumber trade war inevitable and the cycle of disputes followed by temporary managed-trade regimes to continue well into the future.